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Friday October 4th 2019

Six voting scenario of the next coming general election 2019

Six voting scenario of the next coming general election:-

1. A change in government

Many from the opposition quarter wish for a change in government but this occurrence is akin to the sun rising from the west.

Some also drew encouragement from the recent Malaysian election which saw the once-invincible UMNO’s fall from grace but it is fool-hardy to compare the two countries.

One has a very corrupt ex-Prime Minister and a comeback veteran politician in the mould of Dr Tun Mahathir coupled with the fact that it’s civil society is very active and has organised several huge public street demonstrations.

Our opposition politics is still very disunited and only through Dr Tan Cheng Bock can we see a small ray of hope shining through the dark alley.

So a change of government is still not in the pipeline yet plus there is no visible sign that any opposition party can form the next government should the opposition miraculously wins more than half of the seats in Parliament.

Moreover, the odds are so stacked against the opposition that even winning one single seat is considered a major achievement by any standard.

2. PAP sweeping up all the seats

It is also a remote possibility that PAP will sweep up all the seats in Parliament during the next election though they have no qualms of wanting to do so.

The Worker’s Party should still win Aljunied GRC and Hougang SMC though the former could prove elusive with the town council suit hanging near it’s throat. It could swing both ways depending on how the government decides to carve out the constituency boundery – they have a huge advantage here though as both the Election Department and constituency boundary committee report to the Prime Minister Office.

It could even place a minister to contest in Aljunied this time round to foster confidence instead of a unknown team in the previous 2015 GE as it has only lost by less than a mere percentage of the votes.

Nevertheless,¬† I foresee that the WP’s Aljunied team will finally triumph by virtue of it’s strong ground support during the last two terms and that more importantly, Singaporeans still want to see a firm alternative presence in Parliament.

Most of the WP’s Aljunied MPs have done well in Parliament so far and their supporters should continue to vote for them in this coming GE to maintain the status quo for the main opposition party.

However, it is unlikely to win additional more seats in Parliament given the rather low-key preparations just months before the next coming GE perhaps due to the recent disruption of the key leadership change and 5-year-old town council suit.

Thus, a PAP’s clean sweep of all the seats in the next coming GE¬† is also not possible and for the good of Singapore this should not happen at all.

3. SDP finally winning a seat

SDP may finally win a seat or even seats in Parliament?

Many loyal supporters of SDP will be jumping sky-high in joy if the party finally win a seat in Parliament – it has being the dominant number two opposition party so far but ironically without a seat yet to show.

Some quarters have murmured that perhaps the party will have a glimpse of hope if all forces will to be channelled into contesting just two SMC for the coming GE – one for Dr Chee Soon Juan and the other for Dr Paul Tambyah.

It does make sense as most of the GRCs it contested so far have not gone before the 40-percent mark in votes as Singaporeans may find the party too head-on and confrontational.

Though Singaporeans want some alternative voices in Parliament to check the incumbent, they prefer them to be level-headed and civil-minded.

Nevertheless, a much calmer Dr Chee now may have finally find enough support from Singaporeans ready to throw caution to the wind and vote in the veteran politician.

Moreover, the party’s chairman Dr Tambyah is another strong candidate who deserves a seat in Parliament given his strong articulate views on the problematic healthcare system here and may even upstage Dr Chee to attain a seat in Parliament instead for the party.

Whoever wins a seat for the party, Singaporeans are glad that finally the second dominant opposition party has garnered enough support from the voters to make it count. More significantly, without any viable presence in Parliament, it is difficult for the party to forge ahead and if it still could not win a seat in this coming GE, my fear is that this may signal it’s gradual decline of the party from opposition politics.

4. Dr Tan Cheng Bock and Lee Hsien Yang

All eyes will be on the new party formed by Dr Tan Cheng Bock and the possible partnership with Lee Hsein Yang in a mouth-watering GRC contest.

It is also the first time that a PAP ex-MP has turned against it’s master and suddenly we find new-found hope that finally there could be a break-through in opposition politics.

There is much debate whether Dr Tan should be fielded in a SMC or GRC though the former challenge looks easier than contesting in a GRC.

However, with Lee Hsien Yang as his running mate and other likely solid GRC contenders in toil, there is every chance that the new party could win a GRC in it’s maiden run at the polls.

The only setback is that if the party fails to win then it may not have any Parliamentary representative to catapulate the party to higher ground.

For Singapore’s sake, we pray that the party will weigh carefully whether to place Dr Tan in a SMC which I feel he has a 50/50 chance of making it or to a higher-risk GRC which lowers his winning opportunity to 45% even though Lee Hsien Yang is at his side.

5. Lim Tean

Lim Tean presents a fresh perspective for the opposition and his online support seems audacious and ever-growing.

His strong vocal personality gains him new followers daily and probably the only current opposition party so far which has hit the ground running literally.

His bread distribution also gains alot of traction as so far there are not many parties which could garner enough volunteers to support such a regular massive campaign.

As with the other parties, he has to weigh the difficult option of placing himself in a SMC which has a higher chance of winning or group himself in a GRC which historically proves to be a more difficult contest.

Singapore will be better off with Lim Tean in Parliament challenging and checking the incumbent – only if voters give him a chance.

6. The rest

It is difficult to foresee how the other opposition parties could win anything in the coming GE even though they have tried for many times.

NSP, RP, SDA, PPP and other parties have served Singapore well by providing an alternative voice but we all know that winning at general election is like climbing Mt Everest.

It is also unsure whether the opposition will stick to contesting in all constituencies as in the previous GE 2015 thus giving all Singaporeans a chance to vote or contest selectively so that voters are assured that the incumbent will stay in power and that voting in a opposition seat will not upstage any balance in power.

Most Singaporeans are pragmatic and still prefer the PAP to form the next government but yet many are craving for a alternative voice to provide a stable check-and-balance in Parliament.

One thing we know for sure is that the PAP will not get another 70% mandate as the LKY sympathy factor has all but evaporated and much has changed in the current political climate.

The current regime is seen to have grown weaker since the last election and its succession plan has not sunk in well with the general public. Mr Heng Swee Kiat – the best of the worst candidate to be groomed as the next 4G PM is not convincing enough that he is able to lead the country out of a looming economic crisis.

The country will in all likelihood goes into the coming polls against a backdrop of a looming recession and much is at stake here.

We find many fresh graduates out of work and many ageing PMETs under-employed either working as Grab drivers or security guards.

Swing voters could be out in full force this time round and it is believed that at least 10% of pro-PAP supporters may swing their votes to the alternative.

However,  the current new citizen voters (estimated to be at least 8% of the electorate or 180,000) are able to neutralise the predictable swing ensuring that the incumbent will remain in power at least for this soon-coming election.

With each general election, the contest will be made more difficult for the alternative as more new citizen voters will join the fray rendering any voting swing neutral to the opposition cause.

Written by: Gilbert Goh

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One Response to “Six voting scenario of the next coming general election 2019”

  1. Hello says:

    Crazy Rich PAP … suddenly selling tissue papers at heartland hawker centres !!!

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