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Monday April 8th 2019

Six groups of voters who will vote for the PAP in GE 2019

There are six groups of voters who will vote for the PAP in this coming election:-

1. Merdeka Generation

The Merdeka Generation, comprising about 500,000 strong, is expected to throw their weight for the incumbent – especially after the announcement of the Merdeka Generation Package in budget 2019. This senior group will comprise about 20% of the voting population in our country.

Traditionally, the silver-haired generation has being supporting the government at the polls having seen through the pioneering years of LKY though some may have decided to switch side recently after seeing how their retirement is being screwed up by the ever-changing shift of the CPF withdrawal goalposts. Many have to work at foodcourt clearing tables whereas others collect cardboards in order to survive.

Of course, there is another group of babybooming seniors who managed to benefit immensely from our growing-up years and they will in all likelihood vote back the incumbent to maintain their own wealth and status quo.

The Merdeka Generation belongs to people who were born from 1 Jan 1950 to 31 Dec 1959 (i.e. 60 to 69 years old in 2019) and the package involves various periodic top-up to their Medisave account focusing primarily on healthcare.

One of the more mouth-watering feature of the election-related package includes a $200 top-up every year to their medisave from 2019 to 2023. Other notable features include a one-off $100 Passion Silver Card topup and additional 25% off subsidised bills at polyclinics and public Specialist Outpatient Clinics (SOCs).

As many silver-haired seniors are currently struggling due to a lack of resources from their CPF retirement fund or family members, they may vote for the incumbent out of gratitude because of the healthcare-focused package.

This group of voters will contribute 8% to the winning margin of the incumbent.

2. New citizens

New citizens have being included into the electorate automatically once they are officially made a citizen in our country. There is a cry from many opposition quarters to delay their voting rights to the next preceding election so that they will not vote out of loyalty to a government who has given them the citizenship rights.

It’s a sure-win tactic to create a winning vote for every citizen that the government tries to add into the electorate and the last election’s huge winning margin of 70% could be a regular feature of every election if this trend persists.

Each year, an average of 5000 to 7000 new citizens are included into the electorate and to date we could see close to 100,000 of them voting at the next GE this year.

But will all our new citizens continue to vote for the incumbent especially for those who have tasted the sourness of some of our flawed policies having live here long enough to see through the hyprocrisy?

Surely after living here for almost a decade or longer, new citizens may too reconsider their choice of a government as they know that the extremely high cost of living will surely hurt them badly in the pocket, our educational system in all it’s goodness is still unable to help a citizen stays relevant in a fast-changing vibrant work system and the frequent accidental death of our NS men will create uneasiness in families who have a son fast approaching national service.

It is fair thus to conclude that new citizens will definitely vote for the incumbent in their first election more out of gratitude than anything else but older new citizen voters may reconsider their choice once they see through the honeymoon period and come to their senses.

This group will contribute close to 5% of voting margin to the ruling party.

3. Young voters

It came as a shock when statistics revealed that many young new voters voted for the incumbent at the last GE reinforcing the belief that they too subscribe to the reluctance for change and prefer to stick to the trusted status quo come what may.

Our youth goes through the traditional societal system of conformity and fear of change – elements that tend to favour the ruling party when it comes to an election which requires you to make a choice between the normal stable and abnormal unstable. Many young people still prefer to go with the known devil than anything that is unknown even though there is the promise of a better future.

Many countries could change their government – notably Malaysia recently as there is a huge ground swell of factors that favoured change. Unity of opposition parties/activists, a ultra-corrupt ex-PM Nazib and the emergence of a messiah-like ex-PM Mahathir heavily tilt the tide for a regime change in Malaysia. All three factors have came together in unison resulting in a peaceful handover of governance through the election polls.

However, we could not see such a trend emerging yet in our own country, our opposition parties are still campaigning very much on their own despite the talk of a coalition to be headed by Dr Tan Cheng Bock, our activists and opposition politicians still could not form a reliable alliance and people tend to vote for their own self-centred need than for the common good.

Thus, it is no surprise that our youth – people whom many count on to vote for a change in government – has thrown their support for the ruling party against all odds.

4. The civil servants

Though the government has always assured the civil servants that they have every right to vote for the alternative, many still fear that their rice bowl will be jeopardised if they vote otherwise.

Losing one’s job in Singapore is like signing on the death warrant and many civil servants prefer to play safe and vote for the hand that feeds that an unknown alternative.

During last GE, there was also this mysterious SMS message that passed round virally stating what Singapore will be like if the government falls to the alternative scaring many to switch their votes back to the incumbent at the last minute.

Many Singaporeans still prefer the incumbent to run the country but they don’t mind having a credible opposition checking them in Parliament – like what the WP has being doing successfully all along.

The many huge rallies at opposition sites notably WP and SDP have alarmed neosayers to the belief that there could be a wild swing of votes against the incumbent so the destructive note was indeed a timely warning to voters not to swing their votes anyhow as there could be a freak result which many are not ready for.

As there are close to 100,000 civil servants out of about 2.4 million voters, it’s almost certain that a large percentage from this group will continue to contribute to the winning margin for the ruling party.

This group of voters will contribute 4% to the winning margin of the ruling party.

5. Higher middle-income and rich Singaporeans

There is also another huge group of Singaporeans whose current status count on the continual existence of the PAP in order for them to enjoy back their wealth and prestige.

Many join the CCs and RCs to get into the good books of the government and their positions looks shaky once the incumbent is out of power as they are very much tied to the endeared favours provided by the party.

Many businessmen also prefer to vote back the incumbent as any other alternative will endanger their current position and prosperity.

It is unsure how big is this group but a figure of 300,000 is not unthinkable as many Singaporeans who are well-off have strong ties with the incumbent.

This group of voters will contribute another 12% to the winning margin of the ruling party.

6. Auntie/uncle voters

There is another huge group of auntie/uncle voters who will vote back the incumbent even though they perish in poverty due to a lack of political education when they were younger and a personal failure to embrace changes for themselves.

Brain-washed regularly by a pro-government media propaganda, they could not vote otherwise despite their adverse situation.

We have spoken to many auntie and uncle and despite their abject economic condition, they remained loyal to the ruling party as if voting otherwise is a sign of betrayal.

This group is largely poorly educated and knew little about politics – often swayed by the government’s dismal hand-out and pork barrel politics.

They are often the target of our government’s election-minded hand-outs especially in this year’s budget and they will not fail to turn in the incumbent whom they feel are stable and trusted. Of course, like many typical Singaporeans they are adverse to change and could not imagine a Singapore without the whites in it.

This group will easily comprise another few hundred thousands giving the ruling party another easy 10 to 15% of votes.

Written by: Gilbert Goh

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One Response to “Six groups of voters who will vote for the PAP in GE 2019”

  1. xyz says:

    The young millennials (20-35) are actually quite satisfied with PAP, becoz since 2013 a large portion of them are benefiting with good salaries ($4K-$10K) and thus ability to easily afford housing & starting families. It’s not all roses, as many of their jobs are stressful & long hours.

    While some of them may not be happy with PAP attitudes or policies, they rather vote the devil they know, especially since their lives are pretty good currently.

    Personally I’m hearing more of the PG & MG older generations becoming more critical & unhappy with PAP. Especially those who have lost their jobs and/or unable to retire properly, together with rising costs of living for everyday things like medical, food, utilities.

    However, coffeeshop talk & actual voting action can be very different. Just like the huge audience turnouts during Oppo rallies & ghost town turnouts for PAP rallies — but during voting, most still vote PAP.

    Will need to see whether there’s significant shift in older voters in next GE.

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