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Friday April 18th 2014

Sinister reason why PAP wants 6.9 million population by 2030?

Just when Singapore was celebrating the euphoria of Worker’s Party enormous victory at Punggol East by-election by a landslide margin, a deflated PAP counter-punched with the sickening announcement that they will go ahead with the white paper’s 6.9 million population by 2030.

Now, no one  is talking about the WP’s infamous victory as all coffee shop talk switched to the 6.9 million population target – a very effective counter distraction indeed!

Many friends I knew discussed about the matter  in disgust and discontentment  and some even gesticulated wildy when they spoke to me about the implications of having another 1.7 million people on our tiny island – mostly incoming foreigners from third world countries around us.

Systematic way to replace local Singaporeans?

To achieve 6.9 million population by 2030, the government has to bring in at least 90, 000 foreigners annually without fail.

The total composition of our population from 2004 to 2010 is as follows:-

Singapore Population by Years
Singapore Residents Non-Residents
Year Total Total (Residents) Singapore Citizens Singapore Permanent Residents
Number (Thousands)
2010 (Census) 5,077 3,772 3,231 541 1,305
2009 4,988 3,734 3,201 533 1,254
2008 4,839 3,643 3,164 478 1,197
2007 4,589 3,583 3,134 449 1,006
2006 4,401 3,526 3,108 418 876
2005 4,266 3,468 3,081 387 798
2004 4,167 3,413 3,057 356 753
2000  (Census) 4,028 3,273 2,986 288 755
1990  (Census) 3,047 2,736 2,624 112 311

Source: Asia Singapore

I have being talking to many people since that fateful announcement three days ago but not many seemed  to agree with me that the real sinister  intention of this large-scale human trans-migration is for the loyal votes of converted foreign citizens.

You can seive  through the thick 50-page white paper to sense the desperation of our government’s intention to get in as many foreigners as possible each year  and try to convert the permanent residents into willing citizens for their precious votes to stay in power.

Its methodical, effective and ruthless…

In less than two decades, foreigners will replace local Singaporeans systemically as the dominant population in the name of economics and low birth rate.

Though not all  foreign citizens will vote for the ruling party in GE 2016 due to various reasons, 80% of them will definitely vote for  the ruling party  – more out of loyalty than anything else.

Their children – born naturalised citizens here – will also be coaxed by their appreciative parents to vote for the ruling party when they turn of age.

After Punggol East fell in dramatic fashion four days ago, the ruling party knew that their days could be numbered however one wants to  argue  about the by-election effect.

Swift decline in popularity of ruling party

Their downfall is on the cards and its a matter of time when they will fall out of power.

They ushered in their last trump card by announcing the shocking 6.9-million population growth by 2030 – two days after the fall of Punggol East into opposition hands.

Many Singaporeans are  already unhappy with the  pro-foreigner policy even before the announcement of 6.9 million population target, high cost of living and detached nature of the government.

Already, 130, 000 new citizens have voted in the last GE 2011 and it has somewhat stopped the rot at the polls or the ruling party or else PAP  may have gone below the 60% majority votes received.

We have a total of 2.2 million voters during last election and 130, 000 foreign voters represent almost 6% of the voting contingent – a sizeable group which can help in critical hard-won constituencies.

Each year since the early 2000s, the government has being converting 15,000 to 20,000 new citizens and by the time it reaches GE 2016, there will be another new batch of more than 100,000 loyal  eager-eyed voters ready to cast their votes for their benefactor.

Add in the 130, 000 existing foreign  citizen voters and you have close to 250, 000 voters ready to cast their votes for the ruling party by GE 2016.

It is not surprising that this new group of foreign citizens will vote in blind loyalty  to their master as it has provided them with new BTO flats which they can cash out in five years’ time, good-paying cushy jobs in our gleaming ofices and a promising future for their young children.

No employment protection  in place for local Singaporeans

Throughout the 50-page White Paper, there is no mention of any employment protection whatsoever for local or foreign citizens – making them susceptible to replacement by any new incoming foreigner.

I have also  heard that for any couple who has  migrated here, only one party will convert to citizenship  so that there will be another partner who still holds the homeland passport for a quick back-door retreat if  things go awry here.

To ease things for this group of new citizens to apply for new BTO flats, HDB ruling allows only one citizen and the other partner can be a permanent resident for the application processing.

If both parties are permanent residents, they can only buy HDB resale flats.

More significantly, these new citizens’  votes will effectively cancel out any upcoming swing votes that the population will throw up in three years’ time.

Six percent  of the population for the previous election swung their votes to the opposition parties – numbering almost 1300, 000 voters  in a 2.2-million electorate effectively reducing the majority percentage votes of the ruling party from  66.6% to 60%.

For the recently-ended Punggol East by-election, close to 10% of the voters swung their votes i.e. almost 3, 000 voters switched camp from PAP to WP.

If the same six-percent vote-swinging precedence takes place in GE 2016, we can expect PAP to decrease their majority percentage votes to around 55%v from the current 60% mark.

And if this voting pattern persists,  they will be out of power in two elections’ time or they may be in power but fail to enjoy a parliamentary majority forcing them to go into a coalition government with another dominant opposition party.

New foreign citizens maintain stronghold of PAP power

This slide however is effectively negate by the incoming foreign new voters – representing almost 120, 000 of new voters for  the overall electorate of 2.2 million but efffectively mostly pro-government as they will vote out of loyalty to their master.

We must also not forget the 130, 000-strong pre-GE 2011 new citizen voters who may continue their loyalty to the ruling party by voting for them in GE 2016 though my belief is that after staying here for close to ten years, they may feel disenchanted with the country’s stifling environment and stressful work condition.

The next election will also adds in another huge new problem for the ruling party - close to  80, 000 – 100, 000 young  voters from those coming from the more vocal Generation Y batch and mostly anti-government will join the new electorate which will further help to bring down the majority votes of the ruling party.

With many  pro-PAP voters wanting to swing their votes now due to the WP’s trusted brand as  a viable opposition party and  fresh anti-government votes coming from the Generation Y group, PAP is really in a  fix now and could  lose power within two to three elections’ time if things go their natural way.

My take is that with 120, 000 new foreign votes coming on board every five  years ready to vote for the ruling party, they could maintain power for as long as they want abeit in a less dominant way even though  more opposition seats will be taken up during each election.

One must also remember that due to our slow birth for the past decade, there will be lesser new Generation Y voters coming on board every five years and local Singaoreans will also pass on but on the contrary, from now till 2030, 20, 000 new foreign voters will be there each year to steadily replace us till their voting representation supersedes that of the local voters.

From now to 2030 – which is a 17-year journey and with a conversion rate of 20, 000 new citizens a year, there will  be almost 340, 000 new voters joining the electorate in a enlarged voting population of close to three  million by 2030.

Each year, 20, 000 new citizens and another 20, 000 new Generation Y new voters will join the electorate effectively boasting the registrar by another 125, 000 as we must also take away  an average of  15, 000 new local Sngaporean death each  year i.e. 25, 000 X 5 years = 125, 000 new votes for each election period.

The only sickening fact of this whole voting conumdrum is that with each passing year,  more pro-government voters are added to the registrar via the foreign citizenship conversion as more and more pro-opposition local Singaporeans will pass on.

By 2030, local Singaporeans may even form less than half of the voting population, effectively handing over the voting advantage to the new citizens – provided they do not swing their votes to the opposition camp after living here for more than ten years.

Conclusion

We have not even discuss the 200, 000-strong  Singaporean contingent  living and staying abroad now and its a huge largely  anti-government group out there who do not have accessible opportunity to vote due to the lack of voting stations.

I am speculating and making alot of wild guesses that most of the foreign citizens will vote for the government but surely this is the PAP’s last trump card of which there is a reasonable mathematical chance of ensuring that they will stay in power longer than usual.

No government in the world has managed to stay in power for more than 50 years though and I am sure that the PAP is fully aware of their swift popularity slide and they will do anything out of the ordinary – even at the expense of sacrificng their own citizens to do that.

Power can destroy the morale conscience of  any government and we have seen enough  tragedy at the world stage to ignore this blatant truth.

Written By: Gilbert Goh

Reader Feedback

16 Responses to “Sinister reason why PAP wants 6.9 million population by 2030?”

  1. oute says:

    Excuse me, the WP MPs says that you are not in Parliament, and please dont any how say lah….

    Get yourself elected first, and they will think about your views lah..

  2. Tina Goh says:

    Gilbert:

    You don’t think all this is about collecting money to patch up financial investments that had gone bad?

    • SGPpatriotMond says:

      Tina,

      They are doing it in a higher class way. The economics of property devt is this:

      1) selling price = profit margin + construction cost + land cost. thus:

      2) land cost = price – profit margin – construction cost.

      Land cost is a residual value. suppose if govt block foreign workers from working in the construction industy, what will happen? wages will rise to entice Sporeans to work, its economics 101, demand supply price/cost. Or contractor do tech investment to improve productivity such that not many headcount is required to do the same job. but for sure construction cost has to go up. when that happen, from equation 2, what will happen? it doesnt mean price will goes up just because the property is constructed by sporeans. and developers demand the same ROI for risk taking so land cost has to come down. who is the biggest land owner in spore? tendering out land at high price make good money for the national coffers, and/or cover investment loss. easy way, no need to think so hard how to create innovative industries sector, just sell state land, and for non residential, just run REITs. in fact the white paper looks like an angpow for developers and contractors! btw, do people know that contractors collect $5k upfront for each foreign worker hired?

  3. goodguy says:

    Labour Party of UK issue alot of citizenship b4 2010 elections but they still got voted out

    i believe it will backfire on PAP too

  4. Oh boy says:

    Looks like a civil war in future is unavoidable

  5. Al says:

    PAPaya is turning S’pore ‘From Locals To Foreigners’, a dream city or a mega hotel for the world’s people to come in stay & go. Can it be called a nation? PAPaya must have studied everything & done its own measures to conclude that 6.9m is the optimum population that it want due to our procreation issues, it’s a quick fix solution to bring in the numbers & solve the near future economic & ageing problems (bcoz no $$$ no talk & gahmen can’t do anything). By so doing, the gahmen has ignored the locals voices, emotions & their livelihood. Sooner or later there will be lesser native S’poreans & more rojah S’poreans.

  6. sal says:

    Uniquely Spore, vote for the party policies that benefit the citizens….Spore nice place to visit but not to live.

  7. bianco says:

    Gilbert,
    I concur with you. As shown in the GE2011 and the 2 recent by-elections, the PAP is quite resigned that they are on the slide. Sometime ago even the old man acknowledged that it will come. And since he acknowledged that do you think the party will not do anything about it? Inspite of the recent embarassing defeat of Ponggol East the PAP seems so non-chalant. Well, that’s because they have the white paper plan to resurrect and prolong their stay in power by generating new citizen’s vote every year. This of course also continues to create wealth for themselves and the elites I bet this white paper proposal was long planned since the last GE. As long as they have majority votes they will do what they like. In time to come the new citizens will then become old citizens and they will be like us, just suckers to be made use of to generate wealth for those in power. What all opposition parties should do is to harness the support of all new citizens and reach out to those foreigners who is contemplating to become citizens. Let them see through the scheme of PAP, let them know the real reasons why they have been let into Singapore so easily. If they don’t suffer like the rest of the Singaporeans now their children will.

  8. Anne says:

    I am part of the Gen Y that you speak of, and many of us view this policy with disgust and mortification. Given the current political situation and government policies (Influx of FT, stressful education system and increased unhappiness levels among locals) many of us plan/choose to emigrate to foreign countries to forge better lives there, for we believe it is much better to live in another country as an FT than stay in our motherland that gives priority to FTs while turning a blind eye to the plight of the locals.

  9. Siv says:

    So is there another sinister reason why more and more SAF Generals are joining the PAP? After all, didn’t a certain someone claim that “if there’s a freak result, the army will have to come in and stop it”?

  10. Yup Gi Guan says:

    The more I think about the topic of the 6.9mil population, the more I question what is the real reason behind it too.
    One reason that the ruling party gives is “FW do the jobs that Singaporean shun”, “There is not enough Singaporeans to fill the positions in companies which are expanding”

    I am curious if that is true, or if there are underlying causes for these.

    Was wondering if there is a way to conduct a national exercise to do a head count of all citizens who are currently unemployed, having a mismatch in jobs, so that we can have a clearer picture of the situation. (but of course we must keep identities of participants confidential)
    *I know there are gov statistics, but I don’t trust them

    I am hoping a picture will surface if we add the number of unemployed + mismatch employment + home-based working + working overseas + those who migrated, we may get close to the figure of the shortfall in workers.

    • J Y says:

      I agree with WP Gerald Giam that we need to RAISE WAGES to reduce the opportunity cost of staying at home. The govt just refused to accept WP’s stand of increasing resident employment rate by 1%. They rather replaced us with FW & FT, which will not raise the cost of goods & services.

      It is not that we shun certain low level positions. We have to look at the whole picture in the context of a decent standard of living with a reasonable workload and reasonable working hrs.

      At this rate we are going, more & more of us will be replaced by OTHERS at an earlier age. It will be a vicious cycle that the poor can never get out of. Also, the poor don’t have the money to migrate to greener pastures and get stuck here till their death.

  11. Johnny says:

    PAP knows darn well they will have a majority in the Parliament, even losing a few of seats to the oppositions is no cause for concern. They know they will still hold the power to govern. I used to be a staunch supporter of PAP… but now they really make me sucks…

  12. Paul Zhong says:

    I share your view that PAP wants voters to stay in power.

  13. SG Panda says:

    It is clear that PAP will be using this slogan for the 2016 GE.

    “Vote For PAP, Vote For 6.9 mil population white paper”

    I really wanna see how the result will be like in 2016.

    Some say a lot of soft-core PAP supporters may switch camp. So let’s see how it goes.

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