I took a cab ride  last week to my  appointment and the driver was chatty on the Punggol East by-election – he told me that the Workers’ Party will win the Punggol East by-election even though it is a five-cornered battle!

I told him that even in a three-cornered fight, PAP will win as the opposition votes will be splitted between the other two opposition parties.

I quoted him statistics from the Presidential election which saw a 4-cornered Tan fight and we knew how it ended.

Note that this cab conversation  happened  last week and   before the Prime Minister announced the by-election date.

“Workers’ party sure win one la…” he told me emphatically as I sat behind the cab.

“They have the wind and it is blowing at their end now.”

Workers’ Party sure to win?

Maybe my cab driver  was very much influenced by the Hougang SMC by-election win just six months ago when Yaw Shin Leong absconded from the MP seat triggering a by-election.

Though I wanted very much to agree with my cab driver, I must admit that PAP has the winning edge now in a four-cornered fight.

It is also no wonder that the Prime Minister quickly announced the Nomination Day to be on 16 January follows by voting day  on 26 January.

Some have speculated that he wants the by-election to be done and over with before the AIM findings become public but  I disagree as I thought  the Prime Minister has seized the early advantage  knowing  that  the SDP seriously also wants  to contest in the by-election.

SDP has grown in leaps  and bounds since last year by proposing a series of well-thought-up papers from healthcare to population growth.

It’s Secretary General Chee Soon Juan has also grew more sober and matured and many observers have detected that he is a changed man now compared to many years ago when he went on a unpopular hunger strike and yelled at the then-Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong during a election campaign.

SDP actually deserved a shot at the by-election but I am sure that Workers’ Party will not give way especially when  they have contested in that ward during the past election.

There is this unspoken  rightful claim to a by-election ward if the party has contested in it before.

I am sure that SDP will not be happy if the Workers’ Party contest in Holland GRC if there is a future by-election in that area.

Moreover, what  probably irks many other opposition supporters is  that WP seems aloof and distant after  winning the Aljunied GRC   and   do not make any attempt to connect with  other opposition parties.

There is this enforced  exclusivity which bothers many Singaporeans.

They behave as if they are the only elite opposition party and cut themselves off from the rest.

I  believe that this is wrong as a united opposition is the biggest threat to the ruling party and not  just a solo  dominant opposition party.

Unity of opposition parties in GE 2011

We all knew that the ruling party’s worse nightmare happened three weeks before Nomination Day during the 2011 General Election when all the opposition parties came together and strategised so that there would not be a three-cornered fight in any constituency.

When I saw a picture of all the opposition parties’ chiefs sitting round a table curving  out their turf of engagement for the general election, I saw unity and hope for the country.

It is when all the opposition parties could sit down and unite together for a common cause, then the ruling party will shudder and worry.

The strategy worked well for the opposition during the previous general election  as it is envisaged that any three-cornered fight would automatically hand the favour back  to the ruling party.

Political analysts have argued that there will be 40% loyal  PAP voters followed by another 30%  of  die-hard opposition supporters with the remaining 30% comprising of swing voters.

Even if the remaining 30% of  swing voters totally support the two other opposition parties,  PAP will win as their voters are pretty loyal and the two opposition parties have to share the  other 60% votes.

PAP loyal supporters comprise mainly old folks of the Lee Kuan Yew era, civil servants, generation X PMETs who are gainfulyl employed and doing well  and businessmen with PAP ties.

It is envisaged that the ruling party will win the Punggol East by-election by less than 50% this time  round  - probably in the mid-40s percentage range.

Too many negative stuff has  happened since GE 2011 especially for  those who are disillusioned by  the foreign influx affecting their employment and housing opportunities.

Many local PMETs were replaced by incoming foreign talents and our resale flat prices  have sky-rocketted causing many new couples to miss out on better housing choices in the resale market.

Multiple-cornered fight benefits PAP

If Workers’ Party could have the mandate to go in as a  solo opposition  party and contest the Punggol East by-election, there is a slim chance that  they may win  against all odds.

PAP’s candidate Dr Koh Poh Koon seems weak and not a strong war-horse  many envisaged PAP will field in a must-win by-election battle.

He also looks shy and unapproachable  on photo.

During the last general election, the Workers’ Party managed to garner 41% of the total votes by fielding a young female candidate.

SDA’s Desmond Ang garnered 4% of the votes which rightfully should go to WP and lost his deposit.

Unhappy Singaporeans

Singaporeans are generally unhappy with their living conditions right now especially with the flood-gate of foreigners in our midst.

Things have pretty much gone downhill after GE 2011 with serious infrastructure  failure such as the massive Orchard flooding and frequent SMRT breakdown.

The public scrutiny  of the sex scandal cases  involving top civil servants and of course Mr Michael Palmer have also place the ruling party on a defensive mode.

More seriously, their famous whiter-than-white party slogan has gone down the drain of no return.

Moreover, the latest AIM scandal involving the town councils have capped off a dismal year for the ruling party.

A by-election is the last thing they want on their agenda especially when it is triggered by a sex scandal involving their own  high-ranking politician.

Never so much negative stuff has happened in any given  year  since the ruling party  seized power in 1965 that it is as if they are shooting themselves in the foot time and again.

The regular by-election syndrome seems to favour the opposition parties more  as it allows them much needed publicity which usually come once every five years.

For the Workers’ Party, they could not have ask for a more regular opportunity to gather 30, 00 people and propagandise their message to them for five nights straight during campaigning.

As for the ruling party, every by-election is a unwelcomed distraction as they have no time  to  try and  rebuild from the disastrous GE 2011.

They also could not consolidate  and build on the popular National Conversation which allowed them to speak to at least 10, 000 people so far.

Nevertheless, unless the opposition parties come to a compromise and field only one candidate, the ruling party will win for sure.

This  by-election is one  that PAP  could not afford  to lose as it  will be a serious stab to the morale of the ruling party and cement the common belief that PAP is on the slippery slope of power decline.

Written by: Gilbert Goh