Jan 1, 2010

8 things to roar about in 2010

A ferocious animal lurks as Singapore enters a brand new year. According to the Chinese horoscope, the lunar new year beginning on Feb 14 belongs to the Metal Tiger – an animal that has little to do with scandals but a lot to do with changes. What should Singaporeans be watching for in 2010?

1 Election watch

EVEN before the Tiger comes roaring in to usher in the Chinese New Year, Singapore is kicking off 2010 with a bang.

Proposed reforms to the electoral landscape are likely to be introduced at the next Parliament sitting in two weeks.

During the reading of the Bill, MPs will debate on these amendments: smaller group representation constituencies (GRCs), more single seat wards and greater opposition representation.

If the Bill is passed, the House, which has been dominated by the People’s Action Party (PAP) since 1968, could see an influx of at least 18 non-PAP MPs. Nine will be Nominated MPs and the other nine will be opposition MPs or Non-Constituency MPs, the best losers from the opposition in a general election (GE).

While these changes would lead to more intense parliamentary debates, a new proposal aims to do the reverse: blow the heat off the hustings with a ‘cooling off’ day so that all candidates and citizens – except the media – could take a break from the sound and fury of campaigning.

All this talk about ‘cooling off’, however, has only served to stoke up an election fever, with some observers speculating that a GE could be just around the corner.

Some political punters are betting that it will take place as early as the first half of this year, more than a year ahead of schedule as the GE does not need to be called before February 2012.

A possible timeframe is between March and early June, after the Budget in February and before the Fifa World Cup in mid-June which will be followed by the Youth Olympic Games (YOG) in August.

For the ruling party, a snap poll means catching the recovering economy on an upward trend while people are in a relatively happier mood – except for perhaps first-time home buyers. Any time later, the economy might relapse into another recession.

Other observers are more inclined to place the date towards the year end after the high of the YOG and after this year’s Budget begins to bear fruit.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is not giving anything away. Asked in late November if he would call a GE this year, he replied with a laugh: ‘Maybe. I don’t have a date for you.’

There is still work to be done, he said, including appointing the electoral boundary review committee which decides on the number of constituencies and the shape and size of each ward.

Although the opposition is pressing for advance notice of boundary changes, it is not waiting idly for the report. Each party is rumoured to be carving out its electoral turf.

The Workers’ Party (WP), the most-watched party in the 2006 polls, is keeping away from the media glare as it goes on its walkabouts across the island, with the focus on its previous haunts.

Public curiosity has been piqued by talk of opposition veteran Chiam See Tong and rookie Kenneth Jeyaretnam from the Reform Party seeking an alliance to contest a GRC for the first time.

Strange bedfellows or tactical partners, the duo will up the ante, with one having the political cachet and the other, the political pedigree. They are said to be eyeing Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC.

No GE has ever been held in a Tiger year. If it is called this year, expect a snarl-and-claw battle.

2 Budget bonanza

IF YOU believe what geomancers say about the Metal Tiger, then giving silver is supposed to bring good luck.

There will be quite a lot of silver to go around, with Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam promising that the Government will continue to spend money to boost the economy this year.

But do not expect the same slew of schemes like last year’s $20.5 billion Resilience Package to help families, workers and businesses cope with the economic crisis.

This year’s Budget hongbao to be announced after Chinese New Year will be less broad-based. It will be ‘targeted specifically at restructuring, enhancing productivity, and preparing for growth over the medium to longer term’.

Singapore’s economic engine will undergo a major overhaul to get the country up to speed in the post-recession economy. The octane power will come from the Economic Strategies Committee (ESC) set up last May to find new and fresh ways to grow the economy.

Several economists are expecting a re-think of the growth model. They suggest growing more privately owned local enterprises, having a sharper shift from manufacturing to services, and helping firms to regionalise their operations.

The goal is not just higher growth, but sustainable and even slower growth.

Singapore was once called an Asian Tiger economy. The ESC led by Mr Tharman will release its report before the Budget. Will it put the roar back into the economy?

3 Labour targets

IF COMPANIES could imbibe the tiger-like traits of agility and alertness, they could stay nimble, innovative and boost productivity by relying less on foreigners.

In his National Day Rally address last August, Mr Lee made it clear that there was a limit to the intake of foreigners. He could not imagine their population doubling to two million.

His speech followed the sudden surge of foreigners, with as many as 300,000 flocking here to work during the job boom in 2007 and 2008.

Few doubt that they have contributed immensely to Singapore’s rapid economic rise, but there is an increasing realisation that the country could have opened the doors too wide, too fast. The time has come to calibrate the flow.

Economists believe that importing a vast number of foreign workers is simply not sustainable.

By last year, foreigners accounted for a third of the three-million-strong labour force, up from only a quarter in 2004. Singapore’s economy boomed in tandem with average growth of 8.2 per cent between 2004 and 2007.

Unfortunately, while their sheer numbers have fuelled growth, the actual productivity of each individual worker has fallen.

For some sectors like manufacturing, hotels and restaurants, the productivity decline started in 2006 – about the same time foreign workers started entering Singapore in large numbers.

But employers seem reluctant to cut down on foreign labour, with many arguing forcefully that they need to hire more of them to stay in business.

Will this year see a return to productivity which used to be the mantra in earlier decades? All eyes are on the ESC to see if it can coax companies to make the leap.

4 Immigration and integration

ONE longstanding and intractable issue, which will continue to seize the attention of policymakers, is the declining fertility rate.

Whatever measures they instituted to spur procreation did not seem to work. Even longer maternity leave and better financial benefits have not brought in the stork. The fertility rate slid from 1.60 in 2000 to 1.28 in 2008, way below the replacement rate of 2.1.

This year is not likely to arrest the trend – no thanks to the superstitious belief among Chinese Singaporeans that Tiger babies, especially female ones, are not considered auspicious.

As the Government cannot be too intrusive about such personal decisions, it is expected to continue topping up the population with more immigrants.

Indeed, bringing in immigrants is much easier than bringing in the stork. The number of new permanent residents and new citizens reached record highs last year, pushing Singapore’s population to almost five million.

But not all Singaporeans are happy with this influx as they feel crowded out in the competition for jobs and places in schools and tertiary institutions. This is a controversy that will continue to blow hot and cold this year.

The Government has set up the National Integration Council to help the growing pool of immigrants assimilate into mainstream society.

Greater efforts by government and community leaders will be needed to overcome the resentment, suspicion and envy of Singaporeans towards new immigrants and foreigners. Can the gulf ever be bridged?

5 New media

IF THE cyberworld is a jungle, expect to encounter more tigerish criticisms and snarling views as they continue to mushroom in political news websites and blogs.

As the alternative media provides more up-to-date and on-the-spot reports, it seeks to give mainstream media a run for its money.

This trend will grow this year as more citizen journalists take to the Internet to blog about hot issues, post videos that document events or provide breaking news and analyses.

One new development is the Singapore Democratic Party’s (SDP) online talkshow which made its debut last November. Hosted by former WP member Chia Ti Lik, it features interviews with blogger and gay activist Alex Au and women’s rights advocate Constance Singam.

More of such political content is likely to go online now that the ban on political films – as long as the footage is factual – has been lifted.

What is certain is that the Internet looks set to play a bigger role during the next elections, as political parties make the most of new media to reach out to younger voters.

Online personalities are also crossing over to the offline world. Well-known bloggers such as Mr Ng E-Jay and Mr Gerald Giam have joined opposition parties.

Will more of them muster the courage to emerge from behind their computer screens to take the plunge into politics?

6 Censorship review report

A NEW review of current censorship rules is now under way.

A review was done every decade, beginning in 1981, followed by 1992 and 2002. That the current review is being held mid-term shows how swiftly changes have been wrought in Singaporean lifestyles and the media environment. It reflects a desire by regulators to keep up.

For instance, many movies can now be downloaded from the Internet, rendering some censorship rules redundant.

Another issue is whether classification ratings for movies, such as NC16 and R21, should be simplified or rationalised.

The Censorship Review Committee (CRC), which comprises 17 representatives from a cross-section of Singapore society, was convened last September.

It has met focus groups and is conducting surveys to solicit public views on current censorship rules for the entire media spectrum before submitting its recommendations to the Government in the middle of this year.

Will there be more restrictions or a lighter-touch approach to regulations?

As in previous reviews, a balance will have to be struck between the interests of the liberals who clamour for more freedoms, and those of the conservatives who fear an erosion of moral values.

In gauging public sentiment, it may be useful to look at the answer given to one question posed in the last two reviews.

In 1992, 68 per cent agreed with the ban on Playboy magazine. Eleven years later in 2002, it dipped to 57 per cent.

So what will be the answer today? Will wilder instincts emerge or will heartland values return with a vengeance?

7 Silver society

THE Metal Tiger is also known as the White Tiger. Its colour would aptly describe the snowy manes of the growing greying generation in Singapore.

The Government will continue to grapple with the challenges of an ageing society this year. No less than a Cabinet minister, Mr Lim Boon Heng, was entrusted with the task of promoting active ageing.

One target the Government aims to achieve is getting more older folk to work beyond the current retirement age of 62.

This will ensure they have sufficient funds during their golden years. As Mr Lee once said, what is worse than being ‘bo geh’ – Hokkien for toothless – at 85 is to be ‘bo lui’ – Hokkien for penniless.

The CPF Life annuity scheme was set up to enable people to receive a steady stream of income for life.

It starts in 2012, but those older than 55 can sign up now.

Getting senior citizens to work longer also has the benefit of maintaining a pool of local manpower with the necessary skills and expertise.

A re-employment law will take effect in 2012, but this year, guidelines will be firmed up and are likely to form the backbone of the legislation.

Will it have the necessary bite to prevent employers from backing out of employing older workers?

8 Anniversaries

TWO public agencies will mark their golden anniversaries this year. Their celebrations will showcase the spectacular transformation of Singapore.

They are the Housing and Development Board (HDB) and People’s Association (PA). Both were formed in 1960.

The HDB has won world renown for housing a generation of Singaporeans in affordable, subsidised flats.

Today, about 80 per cent of Singaporeans live in HDB flats and up to 90 per cent own their homes. Public housing has now grown swankier, epitomised by the 50-storey apartment blocks at Pinnacle@Duxton.

The PA has helped to unify the country by fostering racial harmony and social cohesion. It started with 28 community centres (CCs) which acted as a meeting ground for all Singaporeans regardless of race and religion.

Now, it continues to bring people together through a wide range of activities organised by more than 100 CCs, 550 residents’ committees, and 100 neighbourhood committees across Singapore.

Amid the hubbub of these 50th anniversary bashes, one anniversary is likely to pass unnoticed if not forgotten: Speakers’ Corner at Hong Lim Park, which will be 10 years old in September.

It represents a marker of Singapore’s gradual opening up of political space. It started with fiery political speeches but has since been reduced to an occasional whimper and the odd protest.

Sundry groups now use the grassy patch to champion their causes, from investors who lost money in Lehman- linked bonds to activists who held a memorial to mark the 21st anniversary of the ‘Marxist’ arrests.

Will the political roar ever return to Speakers’ Corner? Watch this space.

sueann@sph.com.sg