Perhaps it’s the PRs …
05:55 AM Oct 06, 2009
Letter from Chong Lee Ming
AS REPORTED recently, Singapore’s total fertility rate remains one of the lowest in the world, at 1.28 last year.
While most attribute the low rate to social-economic factors, I believe that the large number of permanent residents (PRs) has also contributed to the low fertility rate in recent years.
While separate statistics are not published, it is likely that the fertility rate of PRs is much lower than that of citizens.
First, there are also proportionately more singles, most of whom come to Singapore to work, while the older, more accomplished expatriates are likely to already have had children before arriving in Singapore.
In addition, some could be “transient residents” who would probably choose to return to their home country should they choose to settle down and start a family.
How does this affect Singapore’s fertility rate? The number of resident live births was 49,787 and 37,277 in 1990 and 2008, respectively. The number of females aged 20 to 39 was respectively 532,000 and 556,000 in the same period.
The number of female residents aged zero to 19 in 1990 – the group which would be of child-bearing age today – was 410,000.
By making some assumptions to simplify the computations, the number of live births per thousand reproductive female citizens was approximately 94 in 1990 and 91 in 2008, using 410,000 as the denominator. However, if we use 556,000 as the denominator – in other words, the population including PRs – this number falls to 67 live births per thousand.
This suggests that the fertility rate last year after adjusting for the impact of PRs could be much closer to the 1.83 of 1990.
What are the implications on Singapore’s population policy?
First, it implies that Singapore’s fertility rate will probably not improve much and might even decline further if Singapore is able to attract more PRs. However, this does not mean that our current immigration policy is not sound, as without attracting foreigners here, Singapore’s population will age and decline in the long term.
Second, to measure the effectiveness of the parenthood packages, more appropriate indicators – such as the fertility rate of citizens alone – should be used instead. If the current fertility rate of citizens is only slightly lower than that of 1990, as the above computation suggests, there is limited room for the Government to further boost the fertility rate.
This does not mean that current measures are not necessary, but rather, using more appropriate indicators will help to better manage the expectations of the packages and fine-tune them so that they are more focused and effective.
Third, studying the fertility rate of PRs separately will enable us to gauge how successful we are in attracting foreigners to sink their roots here.
If a significant number of them are “transient residents”, we might want to consider recalibrating our immigration policy to attract immigrants who will help boost Singapore’s long-term population growth, rather than just increasing the numbers short-term.
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