According to the Manpower Ministry, the labour market shed 6,200 jobs in three months, a six-fold increase of the earlier 1,000 figure which signalled the first quarterly contraction in nearly six years.

“It’s probable the job losses showed up very sharply at the end (of the quarter) in a short period of time, and that discrepancy to me is alarming because it shows how quickly things can change,” said Nanyang Technological University economist Randolph Tan.

The contraction was driven by sharper-than-expected cutbacks in manufacturing, as well as job losses in the external-oriented services industries such as hotels, restaurants and financial services.

This huge rise in the number of unemployed, coupled with falling job vacancies, meant that in March there were just 31 openings for every 100 jobseekers. That’s a drastic turnaround from 114 per 100 a year ago and 51 per 100 at the end of last year, though not yet hitting the low of 21 per 100 in September 2003.

Also significant: Nominal wages fell for the first time in six-and-a-half years, hence real earnings shrank 5.8 per cent despite easing inflation.

While there’s been talk of green shoots and rallies, without the economic fundamentals picking up, economists warn, the labour market is likely to deteriorate further for the rest of the year.

“What pick-up we’ve seen so far is coming from the stock market, and the stock market doesn’t create jobs,” said National University of Singapore economist Shandre Thangavelu. “There are still toxic assets in the financial sector to be fixed, exports are still down, the United States economy is still adjusting, so we haven’t seen improvement needed to drive the jobs market.”

According to MOM, for instance, a net weighted 15 per cent of services firms expect to cut headcount in the second quarter.

Even as unemployment registered at 3.3 per cent for the first quarter, HSBC senior Asian economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde predicts it could hit 4 to 4.5 per cent this year.

The numbers would have been worse, if not for Jobs Credit and the Skills Programme for Upgrading and Resilience (Spur), he noted.

Government support for training is crucial for employers as it is a consistent source of support in a uncertain period, said Singapore National Employers Federation vice-president Bob Tan. “Employers are finding it difficult to make decisions about their workers because it’s such a volatile period.”

He pointed out that the 15-per-cent decline in productivity could be due to employers holding on to workers even as output fell.

SUBHD: How PMETs fared

Slightly more than half (54 per cent) of residents – that is, Singaporeans and Permanent Residents – made redundant were professionals, managers, executives and technicians (PMETs), similar to the proportion in the previous quarter.

Retrenched PMETs took a longer time to find new jobs, with re-employment rates falling sharply from 69 per cent to 48 per cent. Degree-holders had the lowest re-employment rate after those with primary education and below.

This was despite the fact that vacancies for PMETs formed the largest share of the jobs pool, at 55 per cent, with 11,500 jobs mainly in from community, social and personal services.

Pointing out that even tertiary-educated residents and PMETs were seeing unemployment rates jump by 67 per cent, Assoc Prof Shandre said: “Spur will have to refined further to reflect their needs and help them adapt to the new types of jobs that will emerge.”

Meanwhile, one in three PMETs found themselves working shorter work-weeks, compared to one in four a year ago.

Recruitment and human resources consultancy GMP Group director Eve Lim said these workers were likely to come from the administrative fields related to sectors that have experienced a slowdown, like manufacturing and electronics. “We haven’t seen it in jobs where you are servicing clients, like sales,” she said.

These shortened weeks result in pay cuts of about 10 per cent on average. “This has financial impact for workers, but we have also seen employers helping to cover half of the cost to the worker,” said Ms Lim.