Job pool shrinks
Q1’s total employment is negative for first time since Sars in 2003; unemployment at 4.8%
FOR the first time in nearly six years, overall employment in Singapore has slipped into negative territory.
The labour market shed 1,000 jobs in the first three months of the year, due to a massive loss of 19,900 manufacturing jobs, according to the Ministry of Manpower’s (MOM) preliminary estimates.
Total redundancies hit 12,600 in the first quarter — a 34-per-cent increase from the fourth quarter last year. Among the resident labour force, unemployment reached a five-year high of 4.8 per cent in March, sharply up from December’s 3.6 per cent.
The last time total employment fell was during the second quarter of 2003 when the Sars outbreak hit. It had marked the tail-end of a six-quarter streak of negative employment, which began withthe dotcom bust of mid-2001.
Could Singapore this time see just as prolonged a decline in employment as well?
Also, in 2003, the job losses had spiked from 4,100 to 26,000 in the mere space of a quarter, as the Sars outbreak gathered steam. Could the fears now of a swine flu pandemic trigger an equally sharp shrinkage in the months ahead?
Economists who Today spoke to couldn’t help feeling a sense of deja vu.
DBS economist Irvin Seah had little doubt the services sector — which registered the highest growth in employment in Q1, and even saw redundancies fall quarter-on-quarter from 3,810 to 2,900 — wouldbe hardest hit should swine flu become a full-blown pandemic.
But Forecast regional economist Vishnu Varanthan felt it was too early to call, as the circumstances are quite different now. The impact of the latest health scare would hinge on “how well-contained it is and how quickly we get past it”.
“Sars was probably the closest ballpark we have but not quite good enough,” said Mr Varanthan. “At that time, the economy was still strong whereas now, it is already quite dampened. If swine flu exacerbates it, the impact and how it plays out would be quite different.”
The final labour market report for Q1 will be released on June 15. ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY LOH CHEE KONG
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